Hurricane Irma: Still have power

It’s just past 7pm and in our area of north-central Florida, the rain has settled in to moderate/heavy rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour in quick spurts. Since this morning when the first rain bands swirled in as Hurricane Irma passed through the Keys, we’ve gotten about 4 inches of rain. The east coast has been pounded all day with heavy surf, large amounts of rain, and at least 50 tornado warnings over the past nine hours. We haven’t had any severe weather yet, but that will change starting in a few hours.

The center of Irma is currently moving past Fort Myers headed north, so we are expecting wind gusts of 75 to 90mph likely between 2 and 7am Monday morning. The rain will stay heavy with additional accumulations of 6-12 inches. I don’t see any way we’ll keep power on through the height of the storm as Irma races by to our west. It won’t be until Monday night, 24 hours from now, that the winds will finally drop below tropical force. We won’t have flooding in our immediate area, although roads and retention ponds are likely to have minor overflows.

If we have power sometime on Monday, I’ll update as to any damage or significant impacts in our area. Southeast and Southwest Florida including the Keys, will have severe damage and some loss of life once daylight allows surveys.

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Hurricane Irma: Florida impacts

Update 11/5/17: Several changes in the past 24-hours to Hurricane Irma. The most serious is the upgrading to a Category 5 storm with current maximum sustained winds of 185mph. That was not forecast and is likely due to the above average surface ocean temperatures. Those temps will only get even warmer as Irma moves closer to Florida. Hurricane force winds extend out 60 miles from the eye, and the storm is 350 miles in diameter. The other slight change is that the 5-6 day track has shifted to the east. The current projection center-line has the eye of Irma tracking north along the east coast of Florida on Sunday and Monday. In this scenario, there will be no direct landfall, however, the storm surge and flooding will be immense from the Keys all the way to the Carolinas. Expect rainfall amounts between one and two feet in localized areas throughout the all of South Florida.

I’ve mentioned before in comments that I live somewhere in Florida. I’ve been watching the track of Hurricane Irma since the Tropical Depression formed August 30th, off the Cabo Verde islands near the west coast of Africa. The early models had it tracking towards the Leeward Islands and that projection has been fairly accurately maintained. The long-range forecast has always stated that Irma would eventually take a right turn and head up the Atlantic Seaboard of the United States near the coast. The steering currents which will dictate the direction of Irma, depend on the strength of the Bermuda [or Azores] High and a low pressure trough across the central portion of America. With each passing day the 5-day forecast track pushes that turn closer and closer to the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos, Cuba and Florida.

As of the evening of Sept 4th, that forecast looks very concerning for all the aforementioned areas with Irma as a Category 4 Hurricane passing near or over numerous heavily populated island groups. The projected turn now takes the center of the storm directly over Florida starting with the Keys and/or Miami and traveling up the Peninsula between Sept. 10th and 14th.

I will be updating daily until or unless Irma misses Florida completely. The graphs will be changed with each updated post. This has the potential to be worse than Harvey in terms of wind damage and loss of life. This is a very dangerous hurricane.

The National Hurricane Center 5-Day Forecast:

9/5/17 5-Day Forecast

The Weather Underground Ensemble ‘Spaghetti’ Models:

11/5/17 Ensemble Models

Finding time to redecorate

On my tenth anniversary of understanding I was a multiple personality, I posted “where do you live?” as an explanation with a link to Rose’s blog. As a multiple personality, over the past decade, we have become comfortable in our identity. I consider myself to be normal, the fact that five other personalities exist in my interior psyche, one being a woman, is not something I really think about anymore.

When we first were trying to sort out all the different voices, we settled on two different ways of coping. The first is that as ‘Brian’, I am the bus driver. I am the personality you see in person and who writes poetry and fiction on this blog. I am the name that takes care of my disabled wife. I pay the bills, cook the meals, clean the house, drive her to doctors appointments ten times a month. If you would ever meet me, you would think I am rather ordinary. My job is to steer the collective in a safe and sane manner.

The second way of coping, is they – the other five personalities – live in a house together. The interior is personalized to each one’s taste, they all have separate rooms, and generally speaking, they get along by ignoring each other. Rose has the final say when disputes arise. The key aspect in all this, is that I – Brian – am not allowed inside except by invitation when a family meeting is required. What they do all day I have no idea. As long as it does not impact the way I relate to the world at large, they can do anything they want.

There is one exception. Rose. She has as much right to exist as I do. Her interior head-space is so different from mine that, were we to fight for control, the results would be… not good, shall we say. From the very first moment I realized Dewy Knickers, that is one of her personalities online, the other is Bawdy Wench, was a real woman, I told her she could come out any time she wanted. That includes writing and speaking. She’s also driven our car on occasion. For the most part these days, she is content to observe and request certain activities.

I bring all this up, because the beginning of the year is always cause for reflection. 2016 was a very difficult year. Being a full-time caretaker has changed many things. The fact that I can write this is indicative of being home all day instead of in the workforce.

But you know something? I like being a multiple personality. It makes me – Brian – a better person.

shop til you drop

The references to past personages in relation to pre-computer generations has a direct correlation to the total number of said personages recognized by persons of a certain age without prompting to Google for references, thus the conclusion can be drawn that the per-computer generations, were in fact mesmerized by television, and chose lifestyle choices based on personages who became famous through exploits on said television. Advertising bought into this lifestyle by portraying an alternative to the drab and dreary life lead by the average viewer if said viewers would only purchase the latest and greatest life changing doohicky, endorsed by the latest and greatest hero/heroine of the moment.

Today’s generation of course has been ruined anew by advertising portraying that the past generations were slackers and ruined the world due to excessive consumption, thus the urgent need to consume what’s left before it is too late.

heal thyself in the fullness of time

“Can’t let go”

There is a fine line at the junction of anger and hate. It’s hard to let go. Hard to understand the past is past and nothing; no therapy, no drugs, nothing can ever erase the pain of abuse. Anger fuels despair. The hopeless feelings of worthlessness lead to self-abuse and suicide. Hate of them becomes hate of self. The meeting point of these two powerful emotions becomes not a way-point but a permanent dwelling of shame. To forgive them is not a betrayal nor an acceptance of the abuse. It is an essential step away from the junction and towards healing the open wounds. Forgiving does not mean going back, forgiving does not mean continuing as a victim. Without forgiveness of self, the anger and hate will ultimately consume whatever remnant of hope still flickers in the soul.

Authors note: This was written years ago but I have always struggled with the inner emotional soundtrack laid down in childhood. Right now due to the changing seasons I am dealing with depression and anxiety and that is why I have not been commenting on your posts.

finding your soul mate is not poetry

Complacency can be mistaken for a soul mate. So can lust. Or the perfect pizza. Nature – or DNA if you prefer – has many devious and subtle tricks of ensuring the genetic material is passed through the generations. What seems to be the ultimate test of human survival, a long-term relationship together, is often cloaked in the mystique of love. That, and the catch-phrase, ‘Soul Mate’. It compensates for many shortcomings. For to be a soul mate requires a suspension of disbelief and an unwavering view in the decency and goodness of your partner. It’s not only having faith in them, it’s having faith in your own judgment. It is always easier to blame yourself rather than them if the relationship falls apart. Nor is it likely, or even desired, to be limited to only one soul mate. It may be that the entire notion is archaic.

But there is something valid in the notion of the soul mate that is beyond poetry and flowers. Even though physics tells us that the observer cannot see without altering the outcome, unlike particles and waves, the observed has free will to resist. Why do two people connect? There are chemical reasons – pheromones seeking like honeybees and returning to the hive mind to dance the message of consummation – but those do not tell the entire story. Nor do intellectual reasons in this age of electronic communication. How can you know? How can a single glance/thought impart an infinite cascade of information that within a fraction of time yields the answer: He/She is the One? Nothing in our experiences of human existence can fully explain attraction. It is obviously very faulty and through the eons societies have sought to control the raw selection process, but in the end, there is in fact something beyond science, beyond faith, driving us out into the world of emotions. We search for a soul mate, and even when finding them, there always remains a slight nagging deep in the heart. Are we supposed to be together? What if I was wrong?